Morehead St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	292.0
Current RPI:	292
Expected SOS:	143
Current SOS:	143
Current Record:	6-21
Expected Record:	6-21
Current Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Conf Record:	4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-7
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	203
Expected OOC SOS:	21

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-21	292.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	101-49	L	0%
11-12	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	A	77-70	L	0%
11-16	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	86-83	W	100%
11-21	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	67-61	L	0%
11-25	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	A	96-63	L	0%
11-27	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	82-78	L	0%
12-2	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	86-49	L	0%
12-17	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	98-94	W	100%
12-19	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	85-69	L	0%
12-28	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	69-67	L	0%
12-30	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	76-69	L	0%
1-4	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	52-61	L	0%
1-6	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	65-70	L	0%
1-11	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	78-75	L	0%
1-13	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	67-71	W	100%
1-18	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	57-58	L	0%
1-20	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	74-55	W	100%
1-25	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	87-81	L	0%
1-27	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	92-76	L	0%
2-1	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	58-61	L	0%
2-3	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	73-83	L	0%
2-8	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	62-78	L	0%
2-10	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	75-73	L	0%
2-15	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	A	83-74	L	0%
2-17	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	108-65	L	0%
2-22	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	H	70-53	W	100%
2-24	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	70-66	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Morehead St.	OVC	26.31	26.31	20.18	20.18	-15.69	-15.69
Belmont	OVC	4.64	4.64	70.97	70.97	1.95	1.95
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.63	4.63	55.17	55.17	0.48	0.48
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.62	4.62	29.63	29.63	-1.88	-1.88
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.60	4.60	60.00	60.00	0.92	0.92
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.56	4.56	42.31	42.31	-0.70	-0.70
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.48	4.48	29.63	29.63	-1.82	-1.82
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.45	4.45	37.04	37.04	-1.15	-1.15
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.70	3.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.85	2.85	32.14	32.14	-1.02	-1.02
Murray St.	OVC	2.83	2.83	82.14	82.14	1.82	1.82
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.82	2.82	27.59	27.59	-1.26	-1.26
Austin Peay	OVC	2.81	2.81	51.72	51.72	0.10	0.10
Lipscomb	ASun	2.09	2.09	67.86	67.86	0.75	0.75
Marshall	CUSA	2.01	2.01	71.88	71.88	0.88	0.88
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.98	1.98	67.86	67.86	0.71	0.71
IUPUI	Horz	1.98	1.98	29.63	29.63	-0.81	-0.81
Xavier	BE	1.94	1.94	84.38	84.38	1.33	1.33
Butler	BE	1.91	1.91	59.38	59.38	0.36	0.36
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.85	1.85	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Chattanooga	SC	0.27	0.27	25.81	25.81	-0.13	-0.13
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.24	0.24	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.22	0.22	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.21	0.21	76.67	76.67	0.11	0.11
Providence	BE	0.20	0.20	61.76	61.76	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.19	0.19	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
Purdue	B10	0.19	0.19	82.35	82.35	0.12	0.12
Milwaukee	Horz	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.18	0.18	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Oakland	Horz	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	32.35	32.35	-0.06	-0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Jacksonville	ASun	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Louis	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	8.00	8.00	-0.10	-0.10
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	93.94	93.94	0.08	0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Furman	SC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00